As the calendar turns toward 2026, the U.S. cannabis policy landscape remains one of anticipation rather than sweeping reform. After years of growing public support and pressure for change, the winter months ahead are shaping up as a period of cautious watchfulness. While no groundbreaking shifts have yet taken hold, policymakers, advocates, and industry professionals are keeping a close eye on several moving parts at both the federal and state levels.

Federal Scene: Rescheduling and Reform

At the federal level, the most closely watched issue remains the potential reclassification of cannabis under the Controlled Substances Act. In 2023, the Department of Health and Human Services recommended moving cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III—a step that would acknowledge medical use and ease some tax and research restrictions. The DEA proposed a rule in mid-2024 to enact this change, but as of winter 2025–2026, no final rule has been issued.

Whether this long-awaited change takes effect depends largely on political will. Some lawmakers have hailed rescheduling as a “game changer” that could reshape the cannabis economy, while others warn that it may stall under administrative delays or legal challenges.

In Congress, several reform efforts are active but slow to advance. The MORE Act—a measure to deschedule cannabis, expunge convictions, and reinvest in affected communities—was reintroduced in 2025 but remains in committee. The STATES 2.0 Act (H.R. 2934), filed in April 2025, would give states more regulatory autonomy. Meanwhile, the Evidence-Based Drug Policy Act (EBDPA) seeks to improve research access to Schedule I substances, laying groundwork for data-driven policy.

The courts, however, remain firm on federal authority. In mid-2025, the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld federal prohibition against challenges from Massachusetts businesses, confirming that state legality does not override federal law. This ruling highlights how the path to federal reform remains steep.

In short, the federal front is active yet unsettled. While the Biden administration and select lawmakers appear open to reform, real progress will hinge on rulemaking timelines and legislative momentum in early 2026.

State-Level Momentum and Adjustments

As Washington debates, state governments continue refining their own frameworks. Massachusetts recently advanced a modernization bill to expand licensing, loosen vertical integration rules, and reorganize its Cannabis Control Commission. The proposal awaits Senate approval, underscoring that even mature markets are still evolving.

Elsewhere, at least three states have filed ballot initiatives for the 2026 election aimed at adult-use legalization or medical expansion. This reinforces the pattern that major progress often starts in the states before filtering upward.

Regulators are also tightening compliance and consumer protection rules. In Washington, state officials extended comment periods on new cannabis advertising standards, reflecting an industry moving toward more responsible marketing practices. And in Tennessee, a new law effective January 1, 2026, will restrict hemp-derived products containing over 0.3% cannabinoids by dry weight, closing loopholes around intoxicating hemp compounds. Such measures suggest that states are fine-tuning definitions as much as they are expanding access.

What to Watch This Winter

Looking ahead, industry professionals and policymakers should monitor several developments:

• DEA and DOJ rulemaking – Any movement on rescheduling will have sweeping effects on research, taxes, and business operations.
• Congressional action – Watch for committee hearings or budget riders that include cannabis provisions.
• State legislative sessions – Early 2026 could bring new reform bills in emerging markets.
• Ballot initiative approvals – 2026 campaigns are already forming in several key states.
• Federal funding measures – Language related to cannabis enforcement or banking could appear in spending bills.

Outlook for Early 2026

While major change may not arrive this winter, subtle but meaningful progress is taking shape. Federal rescheduling, if finalized, could ease operational burdens on medical cannabis businesses and signal broader reform ahead. State initiatives will continue to fill the policy vacuum, driving experimentation and public support.

The broader takeaway: the U.S. cannabis policy landscape remains in motion, but evolution—not revolution—defines the moment. Winter 2025–2026 is shaping up as another season of watching, waiting, and preparing for what may finally be a defining year for federal cannabis reform.